Friday, June 17, 2016

Makalah International Trade 2



MAKALAH INTERNATIONAL TRADE
MAKER ( KEVIN HENANTA) (23215698)
Group  9:
-Kevin Henanta (23215698)
-Melvin JR (27215779)
-Ria Dami Ulfa (25215873)

Indonesia Export Growth




Each country is never apart from export and import activities. Import-export activities based on the condition that every country has the characteristics of each resource and certainly these characteristics differ from country to country. To complement and fill the gap tersebutlah characteristics, import-export activities performed. It is also important to note, indirectly, export and import activities have contributed significant role in spurring economic growth in each country. Based on data taken from the Ministry of Commerce of the Republic of Indonesia, exports and imports are also included in the economic indicators of Indonesia. Indonesia is a country rich in resources. However, if it is able to rule out the possibility of Indonesia’s import value is more dominating than the value of its exports?
Export
According KBBI, understanding is the delivery of merchandise exports abroad. The merchandise in question can be physical goods or services. Export is one of the important benchmark to determine how much economic growth in a country. Of these export activities, it can be assured of business activity in the real sector more awake. Production of goods not only rotates in the country only but also rotates in international trade. That is why, in the long term export activities can be a hero in foreign exchange for the country’s economic growth.
However, according to the data obtained, the development of Indonesian exports starting in 2011-2015 did not increase the contrary. Based on the chart below, in the period 2011-2015, the export value of Indonesia continues to decline each year of 203,496.60 million US $ to 150,252.50 million US $ in 2015 ago. It can be concluded, from the years 2011-2015, the decline in export value amounted to 26.16%.
Figure 1.
Development of Export Year 2011-2015 in Indonesia (million US $)
11.png (1366×768)
Source : Calculated based on data from the Ministry of Commerce in 2015.
Each country has always sought to develop export value of commodity exports superior. Export growth is very important in improving the state revenue that affect the development of the national economy. Since then, exports became the main focus in promoting economic growth in line with the change of emphasis on the industrialization strategy of import substitution to export promotion. According to BPS, komotidi Indonesian export commodities are in the non-oil and gas sector. Whereas, for the oil and gas sector alone, its development is still very much under the Non-Oil and Gas sector.
Figure 2.
Comparison of Oil and Gas Export Value of Non-Oil and Gas in Indonesia 2011-2015 (million US$)
 2.png (1366×768)
Source : Calculated based on data from the Ministry of Commerce in 2015
INDONESIA EXPORT DATA 
Exports from Indonesia dropped by 9.75 percent from a year earlier to USD11.51 billion in May of 2016, following a 12.5 percent decline in April and market expectations of a 7.9 percent fall. It was the 20th straight month of fall, as sales of non-oil and gas products dropped by 7.12 percent to USD10.55 billion and those of oil and gas dropped by 31.22 percent to USD957.9 million. Compared to the previous month, exports were up by 0.31 percent. Oil exports rose 7.42 percent and sales of non-oil and gas products declined sby 0.29 percent. Sales were up to the EU countries (+1.17 percent to USD1.19 billion), Japan (+5.21 percent to USD1.00 billion), Australia (+62.03 percent to USD280.2 million) and South Korea (+1.30 percent to USD427.6 million). Exports in Indonesia averaged 3940.93 USD Million from 1960 until 2016, reaching an all time high of 18647.83 USD Million in August of 2011 and a record low of 30 USD Million in January of 1961. Exports in Indonesia is reported by the Statistics Indonesia.


Actual
Prvous
Highest
Lowest
Dates
Unit
Frqncy


1151000
1145000
1864783
30.00
1960 - 2016
USD Million
Monthl

Exports have been an engine of economic growth in Indonesia. However, after reaching a peak in 2012, it have been in a steady decline due to lower commodity prices and dwindling global demand. Major exports are: oil and gas (12.4 percent of the total exports, of those gas 6.9 percent, crude oil 4.3 percent and oil products 1.2 percent); animal and vegetable fats and oils (14 percent); and electrical equipment and machinery (10.45 percent). Other exports include: footwear, part of such articles (3.4 percent); garments not knitted (3 percent) and ores, slag and ash (2.5 percent). Major export partners are: the United States (11.6 percent), China (10 percent of the total exports), Japan (9.9 percent), India (8.8 percent) and Singapore (7 percent). This page provides the latest reported value for - Indonesia Exports - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Indonesia Exports - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on June of 2016.
Calendar
GMT
Reference
Actual
Previous
Consensus
Forecast 

2016-04-15
02:00 AM
Mar
-13.5%
-7.18%
-14.04%
-8.3%

2016-05-16
04:00 AM
Apr
-12.65%
-13.5%
-11%
-13.0%

2016-06-15
04:00 AM
May
-9.75%
-12.65%
-7.9%
-7.8%

2016-07-15
04:00 AM
Jun

-9.75%



2016-08-18
04:00 AM
Jul





2016-09-15
04:00 AM
Aug






Indonesia Trade
Last
Previous
Highest
Lowest
Unit

375.60
662.30
4641.92
-2329.13
USD Million
11510.00
11450.00
18647.83
30.00
USD Million
11140.00
10780.00
17416.99
21.00
USD Million
-4670.00
-5114.70
3795.00
-10125.60
USD Million
-2.06
-3.20
4.80
-6.80
percent
310670.25
292578.54
310670.25
132629.00
USD Million
100.24
98.20
135.30
89.01
Index Points
96100.00
82100.00
92200.00
35400.00
IDR Billion
2301.00
2329.00
2384.00
1202.00
USD Million
858240.00
806118.00
915334.00
548821.00

78.07
78.07
96.45
73.09
Tonnes
801.00
800.00
1720.00
772.00
BBL/D/1K
4.76
4.78
6.55
3.92

4.00
8.00
49.00
1.00
USD Million
















External Trade
Exports to Country
Imports from Country
Exports of Commodity
Imports of Commodity
All Trade
Last
Reference
Previous
Highest

1330477.00  USD Million
Dec/14
1330477.00
1330477.00
149954.00  USD Million
Dec/14
149954.00
149954.00
84871.00  USD Million
Dec/14
84871.00
84871.00
30624.30  USD Million
Dec/14
29849.50
30624.30
17605.90  USD Million
Dec/14
22601.50
22941.00
16918.90  USD Million
Dec/14
16763.70
20508.90
11510.00  USD Million
May/16
11450.00
18647.83
11140.00  USD Million
May/16
10780.00
17416.99
10621.20  USD Million
Dec/14
11422.50
16388.80
9781.00  USD Million
Dec/14
10703.10
11438.50
6425.10  USD Million
Dec/14
5862.40
6584.90
3758.20  USD Million
Dec/14
4480.30
4692.80
3623.20  USD Million
Oct/15
3718.40
8747.40
2991.00  USD Million
Dec/14
2991.00
2991.00
2864.80  USD Million
Oct/15
2974.30
4818.40
2781.90  USD Million
Oct/15
2869.80
4002.00
2759.80  USD Million
Dec/15
2601.80
2932.70
1848.40  USD Million
Dec/14
2092.40
2465.20
1494.14  USD Million
Nov/15
1356.67
2454.27
1404.19  USD Million
Nov/15
1379.37
2004.96
1227.10  USD Million
Dec/15
1025.50
1444.70
1224.98  USD Million
Nov/15
1283.77
1536.31
1183.40  USD Million
Dec/15
991.60
1352.10
1121.50  USD Million
Oct/15
1206.80
5409.10
987.10  USD Million
Dec/15
942.20
1331405.70
945.71  USD Million
Nov/15
1101.36
1659.25
928.34  USD Million
Nov/15
1045.94
1477.38
836.00  USD Million
Dec/14
806.00
836.00
817.50  USD Million
Oct/15
985.20
1164.90
806.00  USD Million
Dec/14
806.00
806.00
698.30  USD Million
Dec/15
599.70
939.60
649.12  USD Million
Nov/15
626.88
857.60
640.20  USD Million
Dec/15
618.10
944.10
636.28  USD Million
Nov/15
595.57
1037.79
604.35  USD Million
Nov/15
627.66
946.69
566.90  USD Million
Dec/14
556.40
566.90
519.37  USD Million
Nov/15
594.49
927.88
512.70  USD Million
Dec/15
480.40
749.40
486.80  USD Million
Dec/14
469.50
542.30
478.50  USD Million
Dec/15
466.90
632.00
464.20  USD Million
Oct/15
535.30
918.30
452.40  USD Million
Dec/15
386.90
562.70
436.70  USD Million
Dec/15
363.60
585.50
431.25  USD Million
Nov/15
448.83
579.44
396.00  USD Million
Dec/14
365.00
396.00
386.30  USD Million
Oct/15
363.50
666.00
383.94  USD Million
Nov/15
452.69
540.68
343.20  USD Million
Dec/15
340.90
540.70
331.88  USD Million
Nov/15
200.34
379.36
319.70  USD Million
Oct/15
333.40
711.40
307.62  USD Million
Nov/15
305.04
405.55
300.80  USD Million
Oct/15
294.20
531.40
300.07  USD Million
Nov/15
277.60
390.79
297.20  USD Million
Oct/15
257.40
432.90
288.87  USD Million
Nov/15
269.00
611.51
268.60  USD Million
Dec/15
299.50
389.90
264.10  USD Million
Nov/15
288.01
288.01
261.21  USD Million
Nov/15
262.73
370.16
258.90  USD Million
Dec/15
241.10
356.60
241.50  USD Million
Dec/14
241.20
372.30
227.30  USD Million
Dec/15
205.10
279.90
226.10  USD Million
Oct/15
300.30
495.90
217.40  USD Million
Dec/15
213.60
438.00
205.50  USD Million
Nov/15
220.99
280.08
180.10  USD Million
Dec/15
210.90
444.90
177.90  USD Million
Dec/14
170.80
214.00
175.60  USD Million
Dec/14
171.60
175.60
146.42  USD Million
Nov/15
161.04
305.07
145.25  USD Million
Nov/15
85.57
147.06
143.80  USD Million
Dec/14
150.70
150.70
122.10  USD Million
Dec/14
73.20
122.10
116.59  USD Million
Nov/15
143.72
241.60
106.80  USD Million
Nov/15
128.42
161.10
103.82  USD Million
Nov/15
137.79
252.37
101.98  USD Million
Nov/15
85.82
181.28
93.80  USD Million
Oct/15
203.10
281.70
93.58  USD Million
Nov/15
93.05
112.93
90.29  USD Million
Nov/15
114.30
217.43
87.00  USD Million
Dec/14
91.00
98.00
85.00  USD Million
Dec/14
62.00
122.00
83.86  USD Million
Nov/15
85.53
100.70
83.80  USD Million
Oct/15
78.80
120.40
83.00  USD Million
Dec/14
74.00
107.00
78.47  USD Million
Nov/15
60.88
95.31
62.40  USD Million
Dec/14
110.30
341.00
61.00  USD Million
Dec/14
46.00
61.00
59.52  USD Million
Nov/15
24.50
59.52
58.07  USD Million
Nov/15
52.34
73.00
52.46  USD Million
Nov/15
53.38
115.39
51.30  USD Million
Dec/14
7.50
51.30
48.79  USD Million
Nov/15
55.13
69.19
48.00  USD Million
Dec/14
48.00
48.00
47.60  USD Million
Dec/14
78.10
184.10
44.80  USD Million
Oct/15
41.50
107.70
40.09  USD Million
Nov/15
42.09
57.23
39.42  USD Million
Nov/15
51.41
113.04
36.31  USD Million
Nov/15
42.42
150.79
34.11  USD Million
Nov/15
36.66
43.60
21.72  USD Million
Nov/15
13.65
27.09
21.48  USD Million
Nov/15
24.77
34.58
14.87  USD Million
Nov/15
12.20
17.94
12.30  USD Million
Dec/14
16.60
26.00
12.11  USD Million
Nov/15
11.19
38.31
10.00  USD Million
Dec/14
10.00
26.00
9.66  USD Million
Nov/15
9.16
10.05
9.55  USD Million
Nov/15
13.32
17.06
9.04  USD Million
Nov/15
9.38
30.13
8.70  USD Million
Dec/14
6.30
27.00
5.80  USD Million
Dec/14
5.80
5.80
5.73  USD Million
Nov/15
5.80
11.11
5.14  USD Million
Nov/15
1.68
19.38
5.00  USD Million
Dec/14
5.00
31.00
4.94  USD Million
Nov/15
14.13
14.13
4.86  USD Million
Nov/15
3.05
12.28
4.50  USD Million
Dec/14
5.80
23.80
4.45  USD Million
Nov/15
3.55
15.95
3.10  USD Million
Dec/14
3.00
89.00
2.71  USD Million
Nov/15
36.86
166.65
2.60  USD Million
Dec/14
4.30
11.00
1.84  USD Million
Nov/15
2.33
2.62
1.80  USD Million
Dec/14
5.20
23.00
1.52  USD Million
Nov/15
2.03
4.85
1.00  USD Million
Dec/14
1.00
1.00
0.84  USD Million
Dec/14
0.84
0.84
0.50  USD Million
Dec/14
0.50
0.50

CHAPTER 2

GROWTH OF INDONESIA’S SHOE EXPORT TO PERSIST IN 2016.

While the domestic market remained sluggish, exports of Indonesia’s footwear and shoe products show a more positive development. The Indonesian Footwear Association (Aprisindo) estimates that the nation’s footwear exports rose 6.8 percent (y/y) to USD $4.7 billion in 2015. Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Trade Ministry, Indonesian footwear/shoe exports reached USD $3.66 billion in the January-October 2015 period, up 10 percent from exports in the same period one year earlier. Eddy Widjanarko, Chairman of the Aprisindo, added that exports have risen both in terms of value and volume.
Indonesian footwear exports have performed well in 2015 thanks to the weakening rupiah rate. During 2015 the Indonesian rupiah depreciated about 10 percent against the greenback, implying that Indonesian exports become more attractive on the global market. Moreover, local shoe manufacturers also raised prices of their output as production costs have risen due to higher minimum wages and more costly imports of raw materials (mainly leather and rubber) due to the fragile rupiah.
Aprisindo Chairman Widjanarko expects Indonesia's footwear exports to accelerate further in 2016. "A 10 percentage point growth (year-on-year) in shoe exports should be possible provided that the rupiah remains stable."
Adis Dimension Footwear, a West Java-based export-oriented sporting goods company (part of Nike Inc), also stated that it expects good export growth performance of its shoe segment, particularly sports shoes. The company expects Indonesia's shoe export to break the USD $5 billion (per year) level within the next five years. The company added that the recent economic stimulus packages that have been unveiled by the Indonesian government support competitiveness of Indonesian industries and this will also strengthen the footwear industry.
Economic Stimulus Packages of the Indonesian Government:
Package
Unveiled
Main Points
1st
9 September
• Boost industrial competitiveness through deregulation
• Curtail red tape
• Enhance law enforcement & business certainty
2nd
30 September
• Interest rate tax cuts for exporters
• Speed up investment licensing for investment in industrial estates
• Relaxation import taxes on capital goods in industrial estates & aviation
3rd
7 October
• Cut energy tariffs for labor-intensive industries
4th
15 October
• Fixed formula to determine increases in labor wages
• Soft micro loans for >30 small & medium, export-oriented, labor-intensive businesses
5th
22 October
• Tax incentive for asset revaluation
• Scrap double taxation on real estate investment trusts
• Deregulation in Islamic banking
6th
5 November
• Tax incentives for investment in special economic zones
7th
4 December
• Waive income tax for workers in the nation's labor-intensive industries
• Free leasehold certificates for street vendors operating in 34 state-owned designated areas
8th
21 December
• Scrap income tax for 21 categories of airplane spare parts
• Incentives for the development of oil refineries by the private sector
• One-map policy to harmonize the utilization of land
Adis Dimension Footwear currently has a production capacity of 20 million pairs of shoes per year. However, as exports are projected to grow, the company plans to construct a new shoe plant in West Java. The new plant will require an investment of about USD $55 million, financed through the company's internal cash reserves and bank loans. The new plant is expected to have an annual production capacity of 12 million pairs of shoes.
Overview Indonesia's Footwear Industry
Indonesia is among the world top six of largest footwear exporters and therefore this sector is an important asset to Indonesia's manufacturing industry (generating foreign exchange earnings and providing employment to many people). Big global players, such as Nike Inc and several companies from China and South Korea, have production facilities in Indonesia as the country's labour costs are low. However, these minimum wages have been growing rapidly in recent years, weakening appeal of investment in the shoe industry.
Another problem is that Indonesia needs to import several raw materials (leather and rubber) for the production of shoes. Despite being a major rubber  producer Indonesia still needs to import rubber materials for the manufacturing of shoes as the country lacks domestic processing facilities.
Indonesian Footwear/Shoe Exports 2010-2015:
 Year
    Shoe Export
   YoY Growth
 2015¹
      $4.7 billion
         +7%
 2014
      $4.4 billion
        +13%
 2013
      $3.9 billion
        +11%
 2012
      $3.5 billion
         +6%
 2011
      $3.3 billion
        +32%
 2010
      $2.5 billion
           -


NEWS 
Import and export activities, as part of international trade, are exempted from the obligation to use rupiah in all transactions, according to an official with Bank Indonesia (BI).
Aside from export and import activities, exemptions have also been granted for several strategic infrastructure projects including the financing of the construction of airports and power plants.
‘Foreign currency can still be used for import and export transactions […] We are flexible so as to not interfere in the economy,’ The head of BI’s payment system policy and monitoring department, Eni Panggabean, told The Jakarta Post on Sunday.
Eni made the statement particularly in response to comments by Anne Patricia Sutanto, president director of garment producer PT Pancaprima Ekabrothers, who criticized the BI policy that previously required all business transactions performed in Indonesian territory to be conducted in rupiah.
Anne said the policy had especially hurt companies involved in import and export activities because, with the mandatory use of rupiah, they had to renegotiate their business contracts with their foreign partners.
Before the policy was implemented, most export and import related transactions were conducted in US dollars. ‘Now, we have to change this and, for example, we have to tell shipping companies to draft invoices in rupiah,’ Anne said. ‘This policy has caused confusion in the business world.’
Central bank regulation (PBI) No. 17, which is the object of the complaint, stipulates that when non-rupiah currencies can be used in international financial and commercial transactions, specifies income and expenditure under the state budget, regulates foreign currency savings and deposits in banks and international financing transactions, as well as many other transactions covered by the BI Law and the Investment Law.
‘Those who already signed contracts [using foreign currencies] before July can still proceed,’ Eni added.
Exemptions to the rule were also made for strategic infrastructure projects, such as airports and projects in electricity and geothermal energy, with the consent of the central bank, Eni added.
Eni also said BI had given some companies extra time to adjust their accounting systems to rupiah, as backed up by article 16 of PBI No.17.
The article stipulates that the bank can adopt a particular policy if the mandatory use of rupiah for non-cash transactions causes problems for business people, with certain qualifications.
‘The company’s system and accounting can’t change quickly by changing the accounting records from dollars to rupiah, some companies need to close their financial book first,’ Eni said, adding that the length of time to adjust the system depended on the company’s request to the central bank.
Eni maintained that companies had been supportive of the policy, including in the travel sector and the oil and gas sector.
BI has stood firm in implementing its PBI which regulates the mandatory usage of rupiah for all transactions onshore, with the central bank banning all transactions conducted in foreign currencies such as the US dollar.
The policy also stemmed from the Currency Law in 2011, she said, so it did not come out of the blue amid the rupiah devaluation.
The measure was taken to curb the local demand for dollars and hence stabilize the rupiah, which has been among Asia’s most volatile currencies.
The strong demand for greenbacks has partly contributed to the fall in the rupiah, which has lost about 14 percent this year amid the fall in regional financial markets. It stood at Rp 14,306 on Friday against the dollar, according to the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR), way past the previously significant 14,000-mark.
Currency trade consultant and expert Farial Anwar voiced the same concern, warning against further devaluation of the rupiah if the rule was not enforced, as the pressure on the rupiah mounted inside and outside the country.
‘There are already too many transactions inside the country unrelated to international transactions that use foreign currencies. Even apartment rents, mall rents, or hotel bookings don’t use rupiah. That is not right,’ Farial said.

Analysis 

The international trading management of Indonesia must be fixed and made to the better one and the goverment also have to be careful facing some factor that can hamper our international trading management such as :
 a. Inflation
     High inflation may cause our export commodities are less able to compete on the world market, due to the high inflation export prices will be more expensive. Consequently rarely willing to buy the products of our exports.
b. Entrepreneurs in the country who are not protected by their international trade. International Trade little effect to the domestic business, they compete with employers in the region. Kualiatas and the quality of the entrepreneur is very uncertain in the employer’s business
c. Their new colonialism by the developed countries,
            Such conditions create the atmosphere like during the colonial period although differing indirectly. Developing countries that do not have a better capacity will depend on the developed countries. As a consequence, developing countries will easily be tottering with developed countries.
And to overcome the negative effects of international trade and the establishment of ACFTA, diharakan government to quickly perform a variety of approaches to the society by strengthening the human resources (HR) is to develop educational evenly in each area so hopefully everyone can be Tenggara work and professional experts and this is called progressive policies  -Jakarta Post


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